Box Office Analysis-November 30 , 2006

First weekend performance of latest release

Yeh to hona hi tha! 'Dhoom 2' has created 'dhoom' across the country again as it opened to full houses all over the country. Audience got what they expected i.e. complete masala entertainer with 100% paisa vasool elements. While it started seeming quite obvious from the promos that Hrithik Roshan would be stealing the show with his super-stud act, what came as a pleasant surprise was an all around appreciation that Uday Chopra got for his comic act. Aishawarya Rai succeeded in sizzling which only helped her standing after a disastrous 'Umrao Jaan' which leaves Abhishek Bachchan who was good but got completely overshadowed by Roshan mania! Still, what matters is a success and by the look of things, 'Dhoom 2' is en route to enjoy an all time first week record set by KANK at 28 crores. Would it be 30 crores? Seems quite likely, though it would have been for sure if only the film would have got a multiplex release in Delhi/Gurgaon/Noida. Due to non-release of the film at multiplexes there, it stands to loose at least 1-1.5 crores in the bargain, though there is a probability of an agreement between the distributors and exhibitioners happening this week.

Last week's movies

Three movies, 'Unns', 'Rehguzar' and 'Janani', released last week and had a combined total of 1st week in 5-6 lakhs [yes lakhs, not crores!] range, which tells the tale. Yet another instance of multiple supreme disasters in a single week after a similar instance a few weeks back when films like 'Iqrar', 'Mera Dil Leke Dekho', 'Gafla', 'Jaana-Let's Fall In Love' and 'Bhoot Unkle' came together on a single day and were declared trade disasters in the very first show! Weak films with delayed release, average starcast and extremely poor media campaign coupled with near zero publicity ensured that the films were neither talked about nor watched.

From the past

While all new films were releasing and flopping simultaneously, what came as a great piece of news was consistent [and extremely good] show of Sooraj Barjatya's 'Vivah'. Believe it or not but the film actually showed a marginal upswing in the collections and that too in an age when a 50% fall in the second week is considered good as a industry standard. Since the movie was being strategically released by Rajshri, the trick worked and an increase in prints coupled with good word of mouth and family patronage found 'Vivah' collecting another 5 crore to take its total past 10 crore in 2 weeks. Though in Mumbai collections fell marginally from 1 crore to 80 lakhs, Delhi collected a little more over its last week total of 35 lakhs [quite good]!

Shahid Kapoor and Amrita Rao deliver well as a pair once again after 'Ishq Vishk' while Barjatyas prove that films advocating family values and traditions do have their following if marketed well while keeping the target audience in mind.

After a good 8.5 crore first week, 'Apna Sapna Money Money' showed a fall of 60% which may not be considered as alarming but not a very healthy sign either. Though the collections are close to 12 crores after 2 weeks, it now seems difficult if it would be able to touch the 15 crore mark in the final run due to arrival of 'Dhoom 2'. While Mumbai again had the best collections with a near 1 crore total, in Delhi it took a disastorous drop from near 1 crore to mere 20 lakhs. Baffling! In comparison Delhi NCR showed a drop from 40 lakhs to around 25 lakhs which was still decent. The film should now soon be seen on home video with the arrival of original DVDs/VCDs. 'Deadline' barely entered into second week in a city or two and has all but wrapped up its run at 25 lakhs.

While Abhishek Bachchan and Aishwarya Rai have reasons to cheer about with 'Dhoom 2' taking a brilliant start, they would also have the failure of 'Umrao Jaan' at the back of their minds. The film just hasn't shown any fight whatsoever since its release and after a poor opening, it takes yet another 80% fall in its 3rd week. With merely 20 lakhs coming in and no promise of anything in the weeks to follow, it would be hard to imagine this film going any distance further than 7.5 crores. One can't even imagine the plight of J.P. Dutta who may have been left wondering about the failure of the film when he had actually tried to move away from his war films genre!

Apart from 'Vivah' and 'Apna Sapna Money Money', the only other film in the running has been 'Don' which enjoyed another decent week with further 1.5 crores coming in the 5th week. At 49 crores, it should need a couple of more weeks to cross the 50 crore mark. A solid hit! On the other hand 'Jaan-E-Mann' has completely lost its battle at the box office and is now readying for an exit. With only 30 lakhs coming in and collections standing close to 26.5 crores, its time for the film's original DVDs/VCDs to be out. If marketed well, they may as well turn out to be popular amongst children and family crowds!

In the meantime 'Lage Raho Munnabhai' continues to enjoy its status of marginal falls week after week and drops only around 30% to bring home another 25 lakhs in it's 12th week, a few lakhs above what 'Umrao Jaan' got in it's 3rd week. The film is now only a few lakhs shy from touching the 70 crore mark!

In the future

Continuing the trend of no notable releases before or after a biggie, the only film hitting the marquee this Friday would be Pravin Dabas, Preeti Jhangiani, Nakul Vaid starrer 'With Luv..Tumhara'. The movie has barely managed to release after being around for quite a few months and is not expected to create much fizz at the box office.

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