Box office analysis-October 16 , 2008

First weekend performance of latest release

Every trade pundit has been proven wrong. Every industry insider who felt that HELLO is a doomed project has been proven wrong. Every calculation has failed. The unthinkable has happened. HELLO, which was widely touted to be an also-ran material and came with zilch hopes, ended up taking a reasonable opening at the box office. While it seemed that 30%-40% would be the maximum occupancy for this Atul Agnihotri directed film, a 60%+ opening meant that the film would manage to sail through. Reviews have been outright negative but an initial flow of audience means Bollywood has yet another success up it's sleeve.

One wonders whether Salman Khan was the reason that the film got an opening. Now that could very well be the case considering his name was used in a big way to promote the film. However, if Salman Khan as the sole factor could manage to pull a film just based on a couple of scenes and a song then director Samir Karnik has a reason to smile. And that's because his HEROES promises to feature Salman in much bigger duration.

Last week's movies

KIDNAP as well as DRONA have failed at the box office. It is just that the quantum of loss differs in a big way. KIDNAP still has an outside chance of being at least a coverage at the box office due to a 20 crores opening. However, the decline has been steady with every passing day and the film is fast moving out of theaters with KARZZZZ dominating screens in the coming weekend. The film has done decent in Mumbai with 3.5 crores collections though Delhi is on the lower side with only 1.5 crores coming in. Delhi NCR has further added up 1 crore more to the film's total.

In a way, the film reminds of the kind of graph that Hrithik Roshan's career saw when he first stormed the screens. While his KAHO NAA PYAAR HAI was followed by FIZA, Imran's JTYJN has now made way for KIDNAP.

On the other hand DRONA is a disaster of epic proportions. This can be adjudged from the fact that the film has made even less than LOVE STORY 2050 in it's opening week. While the Harman Baweja starrer has managed to cross 10.5 crores at the box office just a few months back, Abhishek's DRONA has earned only 10.25 crores! While Mumbai was 2.5 crores, Delhi was a pathetic 80 lakhs. One can now be sure that the sequel plans for DRONA would be dropped pronto and Goldie Behl would focus his energy on a different kind of subject, provided he actually decides to make a movie again in future.

From the past

HARI PUTTAR has turned out to be yet another addition to children's films that have failed to make any mark whatsoever at the box office. THE BLUE UMBRELLA, CHAIN KULLI KI MAIN KULLI, MY FRIEND GANESHA 2 and now HARI PUTTAR - children have just not been attracted enough to films which mainly catered to them. With a 90% fall and only 20 lakhs more coming in, HARI PUTTAR has all but folded up at 1.5 crores.

WELCOME TO SAJJANPUR has now made whatever money it could and is now ready to arrive on the DVD circuits. In it's third week, the film fell by 80% with a mere 65 lakhs more coming in. At 10.5 crores, the film is a HIT and suddenly elevates Shryeas Talpade to a higher status. His career should further see an upswing now with GOLMAAL RETURNS being a clear winner in the offering.

1920 is also on it's way out after doing good in it's 4 week run so far. The film fell by 75% and managed to add another 40 lakhs to it's total. Yet another film to cross the 10 crores mark this season, the film sits at 10.5 crores today, but it seems difficult for it to touch the 11 crores mark.

Meanwhile amongst the films which released before DRONA and KIDNAP, A WEDNESDAY proved to be the hot favorite for cine goers in the week gone by. Even in it's 5th week, the film did quite well and fell by a reasonable 60%. With 85 lakhs more coming in and 10 crores milestone being met, A WEDNESDAY now sits at 10.5 crores.

ROCK ON completes 50 days this weekend and en route to the landmark, it has now made 26.5 crores. Since the fall in the week gone by was quite steep (75%), the film should now see an exit from the theaters with arrival of biggies starting this weekend.

In the future

After a season of small/medium budget films, KARZZZZ is the biggest film to arrive this weekend. Makers (T-Series) have left no stones unturned in promoting the film. In fact it has been unprecedented with an intensive 24X7 media hype and buzz all over. The film is arriving at a huge print count (1200 globally) which means there would be dozen odd shows at all leading multiplexes. Expect a 50% + opening for this Himesh Reshammiya starrer which has a lot riding on it.

Other two releases of the week are SHOOT ON SIGHT and animation flick CHEENTI CHEENTI BANG BANG. However, it is doubtful of any of the two films would manage to survive beyond a week at the box office.

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